Tag Archives: Activation

Planning is Everything. Plans are Nothing.

The title above is from a quote usually ascribed to Dwight Eisenhower.  Though he was referring to battle plans, it is an apt lesson for business plans as well. His point was that the battle never goes as planned. Weather conditions, enemy reactions and human mistakes conspire to ensure that every military action usually goes off plan before the first shot is fired.  But if the planning process is done with the proper rigor, leaders can react more effectively to unexpected developments. They can assess how changes impact their overall strategy, and better judge the consequences of their subsequent decisions.

I recalled this quote after seeing an interesting discussion on LinkedIn debating the value of business plans for new companies.  Some potential entrepreneurs were dismissing the value of business plans for start-ups because they rarely had any relevance to the business once they hit the  realities of actually going to market. General Eisenhower reminds us how this argument misses the point. The value of a business or marketing plan is not in the plan itself, but in forcing you to think in a rigorous way about how best to deploy your resources. Who is your target? What’s your value to them? Who’s your competition? What kind of human and financial resources will you need to make a go of it? Of course, unless you are the first true psychic, most of what you come up with will be wrong.  The details of the plan may be mere historical artifacts within months of launch. But if you planned well, you are better able to identify and react to what you were wrong about.

The same lesson was delivered in another context by an accomplished climber I once heard speak. He described the meticulous planning process that his team followed before a major climb. They literally mapped out every step. He went on to say that they almost never followed the predetermined path once the actual climbing began, but it was the planning that allowed them to make intelligent choices under stress about what they could afford to change.

Whether you are crafting a business plan for a new company or a marketing plan for an established brand, there are three important lessons in this.  One is that a plan is worth what you put into it.  If you just go through the motions in order to be able to point to an official-looking plan, it will be of no value. Second, you shouldn’t dismiss the planning process just because the plans themselves are rarely executed.  A well-constructed plan will make you a smarter leader and manager for the unexpected turns that inevitably come your way. The final related lesson is that you should not treat the plan as anything but your best current guess. If the plan isn’t working, don’t be afraid to change it. Too many marketing managers disregard new information and new opportunities because it’s “not in the plan.” A plan is not a substitute for thinking. Plans should be treated more like boyfriends than husbands. You should always be open to a better one.

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Filed under Activation, Business Management, Market Strategy

All Media is Now Earned Media

Reach is increasingly hard to buy.

As marketers try to sort the trends between traditional and non-traditional, online and offline, global and hyperlocal, at least one trend is clear. All media is morphing into earned media.

Earned media was typically used to distinguish from paid media.  Tools like PR and grassroots marketing that depended on some viral element to reach a large audience were put in the Earned category, and things like TV, radio, and print were put in the Paid category.  They were like apples and oranges. The common wisdom held that there was a clear trade-off between these categories. Earned media was cheaper to execute, but provided little or no control over what kind or how many people you would reach. Paid media was expensive, but provided guaranteed reach and frequency numbers that ensured the message was delivered.  The categories and the trade-off are both evaporating.

Technology and the explosion of choices have undermined guaranteed delivery.  New channels like YouTube are obvious examples of a choice medium where the viewership is entirely dependent on the nature of the content. You may get 10 views or 1 million views, but it’s impossible to predict. For every Annoying Orange, there are hundreds of thousands of unwatched puppet skits. But the even the so-called mass media are becoming increasingly choice-driven.  For example,  Morpace research estimates that almost 50% of TV viewing is via DVR, online, or other on-demand alternatives.  So even if marketers try to attach themselves to a hit show, their viewers increasingly time-shift and fast-forward past the advertising that is neither relevant nor interesting to them. The previous control over who and when your message would be seen is rapidly ebbing away.  The reach of a marketing message is increasingly dependent on the inherent value of its content regardless of the channel. That’s what we mean when we say all media is now Earned media.

Less obvious but equally true is that the low-cost perception of Earned media is also fading away.  A good press release or a publicity stunt just doesn’t go as far as it used to. The rise of social media has created more avenues for memes to rise and take hold, but also a flood of information that hastens their decline.  The competition for time and attention is more intense than ever.  So the chances of rising above the noise are less. And even if your idea does breakthrough,  it’s lifespan is much shorter because of the constant flood new work competing for the same attention spans. So even if the distribution costs of some new Earned media channels are lower (e.g. Facebook page vs. TV buy), the development costs in terms of the quality of the ideas, the frequency of the ideas, and the work required to populate those ideas with key constituencies is rising.

There are at least two implication for marketers. One is that they have to think of their messaging in terms of content. It must follow the basic principles by which we earn peoples’  interest in its own right or it will be ignored or skipped over.  This is true regardless of its form or distribution channel. The second is that they have to refresh their marketing efforts more frequently if they expect to maintain any consistent share of mind with their target.

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Filed under 21st Century Marketing, Innovation

I Hate Focus Groups and You Should Too

Focus groups are the most  abused form of research in marketing.

I would go so far as to say that more harm than good has been done with focus groups. Because they are relatively easy to set-up and conduct, people overlook their inherent limitations in order to get comfort from having done some form of research before making a risky decision. It allows people to check the box next to research. But in many cases, it would have been better to do no research at all than to have only done focus groups. Here are several of the factors that make focus groups a less than ideal research tool:

Selection Bias: Most research is built on the assumption that you are tapping into a random sample of your desired target market.  Focus groups tend to have a persistent selection bias that negates that assumption.  In our time-starved society, few people are willing to go out of their way and give 2-3 hours of their time to discuss something they don’t care that much about for $50. Those that do tend to either have time on their hands, are eager to share an opinion, or really want the money. In some cases, that may be fine. In most cases, it introduces a type of person whose motivations are different from the target audience you want to understand.

Sample Size: The biggest abuse of focus groups is treating them like a quantitative study. Too often, someone will  conduct a series of focus groups, and form a conclusion about an idea based on the percentage of people who liked it. From a statistical perspective, this is unfounded. Five rounds of focus groups will involve about 20-25 people. Even if you assume a random sample of people, at this number the relative reliability of the results could be in the area of +/- 30%. So if 2/3rds of the people you talk to in focus groups give it a positive rating, it is equally likely that 2/3rds of your overall target actually dislikes the idea.

Rational Bias: Another well-known bias with focus groups is our desire to look smart.  Said another way, we tend to make up rational reasons for why we like or don’t like things, even when we don’t have any.  So when you sit people down in a room, walk them through an idea, and then ask them to comment, you are likely to get an artificial response. People don’t like to admit that they like or dislike things based on what may seem frivolous reasons to others. They won’t admit to wanting to look cool or be popular, even though we know that drives a lot of human behavior. So the answers you tend to get in focus groups downplay the emotional human elements that are central to our motivations.

Environmental Factors: There are a host of environmental factors around focus groups that color what you get out of them.  For one, you are often exposing them to an idea outside of its context or in a less tangible form.  For example, asking people if they think they’d notice a new package design after you’ve forced them to look at a picture of a package is not likely to get you a reaction anything close to glancing past a three-dimensional package in the middle of a supermarket aisle.

Group Dynamics:   Most of us like to get along with others, so there is a hesitancy to disagree openly with another person in the group. Some people tend to be more comfortable talking than others. When you combine those factors together, you tend to get people who unintentionally dominate a group. More extroverted people comment first, and that sets a bench line for other people’s response. Good moderators can help draw out people, but they are fighting a basic human characteristic. So group reactions tend to move toward consensus rather than diversity.

Lack of a Hypothesis: Good research should have some ingoing hypothesis that you are trying to prove or disprove.  For example, the hypothesis may be as simple as “current users prefer this new package design to the old one.” The format and questions in the research are then built around getting a solid read on that hypothesis.  All too often in focus groups, this discipline falls by the wayside. People will just want to do some focus groups to get a general reaction to an idea. Without a hypothesis, people just look at the collection of comments and try to discern possible patterns in them after that fact. The problem with this is that focus groups always generate a number of positive and negative comments. So you can construct any number of theories to explain what may be a random pattern of responses.

So when is it a good idea to use focus groups? For the reasons cited above, they are not good at projecting how meaningful or universal a particular reaction might be.  There are two situations when they are useful.  One is as a starting point. If you are early in your learning process,  and don’t even know what issues may be relevant, focus groups can help you get an initial lay of the land.  The other situation is when you want to better understand the reasons behind a specific reaction.  Suppose your team is working on a new interface design for a website. It’s a radical new design that you’re concerned might confuse novice users. A focus group would not necessarily give you an accurate sense of how many people found your interface confusing. But it could help you better understand what was causing the confusion for those users who were confused by it. In other words, if focus groups are not a reliable tool for finding the answer, they can be useful for understanding the reasons behind it.

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Filed under Activation, Innovation