Tag Archives: ideas

Planning is Everything. Plans are Nothing.

The title above is from a quote usually ascribed to Dwight Eisenhower.  Though he was referring to battle plans, it is an apt lesson for business plans as well. His point was that the battle never goes as planned. Weather conditions, enemy reactions and human mistakes conspire to ensure that every military action usually goes off plan before the first shot is fired.  But if the planning process is done with the proper rigor, leaders can react more effectively to unexpected developments. They can assess how changes impact their overall strategy, and better judge the consequences of their subsequent decisions.

I recalled this quote after seeing an interesting discussion on LinkedIn debating the value of business plans for new companies.  Some potential entrepreneurs were dismissing the value of business plans for start-ups because they rarely had any relevance to the business once they hit the  realities of actually going to market. General Eisenhower reminds us how this argument misses the point. The value of a business or marketing plan is not in the plan itself, but in forcing you to think in a rigorous way about how best to deploy your resources. Who is your target? What’s your value to them? Who’s your competition? What kind of human and financial resources will you need to make a go of it? Of course, unless you are the first true psychic, most of what you come up with will be wrong.  The details of the plan may be mere historical artifacts within months of launch. But if you planned well, you are better able to identify and react to what you were wrong about.

The same lesson was delivered in another context by an accomplished climber I once heard speak. He described the meticulous planning process that his team followed before a major climb. They literally mapped out every step. He went on to say that they almost never followed the predetermined path once the actual climbing began, but it was the planning that allowed them to make intelligent choices under stress about what they could afford to change.

Whether you are crafting a business plan for a new company or a marketing plan for an established brand, there are three important lessons in this.  One is that a plan is worth what you put into it.  If you just go through the motions in order to be able to point to an official-looking plan, it will be of no value. Second, you shouldn’t dismiss the planning process just because the plans themselves are rarely executed.  A well-constructed plan will make you a smarter leader and manager for the unexpected turns that inevitably come your way. The final related lesson is that you should not treat the plan as anything but your best current guess. If the plan isn’t working, don’t be afraid to change it. Too many marketing managers disregard new information and new opportunities because it’s “not in the plan.” A plan is not a substitute for thinking. Plans should be treated more like boyfriends than husbands. You should always be open to a better one.

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Filed under Activation, Business Management, Market Strategy

I Hate Focus Groups and You Should Too

Focus groups are the most  abused form of research in marketing.

I would go so far as to say that more harm than good has been done with focus groups. Because they are relatively easy to set-up and conduct, people overlook their inherent limitations in order to get comfort from having done some form of research before making a risky decision. It allows people to check the box next to research. But in many cases, it would have been better to do no research at all than to have only done focus groups. Here are several of the factors that make focus groups a less than ideal research tool:

Selection Bias: Most research is built on the assumption that you are tapping into a random sample of your desired target market.  Focus groups tend to have a persistent selection bias that negates that assumption.  In our time-starved society, few people are willing to go out of their way and give 2-3 hours of their time to discuss something they don’t care that much about for $50. Those that do tend to either have time on their hands, are eager to share an opinion, or really want the money. In some cases, that may be fine. In most cases, it introduces a type of person whose motivations are different from the target audience you want to understand.

Sample Size: The biggest abuse of focus groups is treating them like a quantitative study. Too often, someone will  conduct a series of focus groups, and form a conclusion about an idea based on the percentage of people who liked it. From a statistical perspective, this is unfounded. Five rounds of focus groups will involve about 20-25 people. Even if you assume a random sample of people, at this number the relative reliability of the results could be in the area of +/- 30%. So if 2/3rds of the people you talk to in focus groups give it a positive rating, it is equally likely that 2/3rds of your overall target actually dislikes the idea.

Rational Bias: Another well-known bias with focus groups is our desire to look smart.  Said another way, we tend to make up rational reasons for why we like or don’t like things, even when we don’t have any.  So when you sit people down in a room, walk them through an idea, and then ask them to comment, you are likely to get an artificial response. People don’t like to admit that they like or dislike things based on what may seem frivolous reasons to others. They won’t admit to wanting to look cool or be popular, even though we know that drives a lot of human behavior. So the answers you tend to get in focus groups downplay the emotional human elements that are central to our motivations.

Environmental Factors: There are a host of environmental factors around focus groups that color what you get out of them.  For one, you are often exposing them to an idea outside of its context or in a less tangible form.  For example, asking people if they think they’d notice a new package design after you’ve forced them to look at a picture of a package is not likely to get you a reaction anything close to glancing past a three-dimensional package in the middle of a supermarket aisle.

Group Dynamics:   Most of us like to get along with others, so there is a hesitancy to disagree openly with another person in the group. Some people tend to be more comfortable talking than others. When you combine those factors together, you tend to get people who unintentionally dominate a group. More extroverted people comment first, and that sets a bench line for other people’s response. Good moderators can help draw out people, but they are fighting a basic human characteristic. So group reactions tend to move toward consensus rather than diversity.

Lack of a Hypothesis: Good research should have some ingoing hypothesis that you are trying to prove or disprove.  For example, the hypothesis may be as simple as “current users prefer this new package design to the old one.” The format and questions in the research are then built around getting a solid read on that hypothesis.  All too often in focus groups, this discipline falls by the wayside. People will just want to do some focus groups to get a general reaction to an idea. Without a hypothesis, people just look at the collection of comments and try to discern possible patterns in them after that fact. The problem with this is that focus groups always generate a number of positive and negative comments. So you can construct any number of theories to explain what may be a random pattern of responses.

So when is it a good idea to use focus groups? For the reasons cited above, they are not good at projecting how meaningful or universal a particular reaction might be.  There are two situations when they are useful.  One is as a starting point. If you are early in your learning process,  and don’t even know what issues may be relevant, focus groups can help you get an initial lay of the land.  The other situation is when you want to better understand the reasons behind a specific reaction.  Suppose your team is working on a new interface design for a website. It’s a radical new design that you’re concerned might confuse novice users. A focus group would not necessarily give you an accurate sense of how many people found your interface confusing. But it could help you better understand what was causing the confusion for those users who were confused by it. In other words, if focus groups are not a reliable tool for finding the answer, they can be useful for understanding the reasons behind it.

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Filed under Activation, Innovation

Ten Things Your Agency Prefers You Don’t Know: #2

Square Peg in a Round Hole_0565The agency structure dictates the ideas you get.

Every agency makes the claim that they are media-neutral, fully integrated, 360, or some other catchphrase implying ideas that are bigger than any one channel. The intent is certainly there, but the very structure of the agency prevents it from happening.  Agencies have accumulated a full-time staff of people who need to be allocated if that agency is to survive as a business.  This is true for almost any type of agency, be it traditional, digital, or social. If you have a dozen copywriters on staff, you better be generating ideas that require a lot of copywriting. Similarly, it you have 3 Flash programmers on staff, you better be doing some Flash development.  So imagine a situation in which a traditional agency is on retainer with a client.  What is the likelihood that the agency will come back and recommend moving most of the budget into shopper marketing? Sure, the agency has shopper marketing in their holding company network, but moving the budget to them means the agency loses the bulk of their retainer. Will the agency reward the Account Director for slashing their retainer and putting agency staff in jeopardy? Of course not.  That’s why you’ll get the ideas that match the resources of the agency.

Related to this structural issue is the myth that agency creatives are focused on ideas that transcend channels. It reminds me of the “IT expert” that only shows up in movies. This fictional guy is equally adept at every computer application ever written, knows both hardware and software, has a PhD level understanding of encryption algorithms, and immediate access to every database on the planet.  Meanwhile, in real life, if you need help with a Mac version of Office, the PC guy in tech support can’t help you. Similarly, a creative brought up to think in terms of websites is not likely to start thinking about a marketing problem in terms of retail events. Another one highly skilled in the art of scripted :30 stories isn’t going to be comfortable crafting a social media program.

It is not a question of smarts, talent, or even intent. Architect Louis Sullivan expressed the adage that “form follows function.” In the case of agencies, function follows form.

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Filed under 21st Century Marketing, Agency Management